By Twink Jones Gadama
A recent research survey conducted by the Students’ Academic Research Network of Malawi (SARNM) has projected that the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win a landslide victory in the upcoming elections.
The survey, which was conducted across all districts in Malawi, from Nsanje to Chitipa, and Nkhotakota to Mchinji, sampled opinions from a representative cross-section of the population.
According to the survey’s findings, the DPP is expected to win a significant majority of the votes, with some districts showing an overwhelming preference for the party. For instance, in Nsanje, Chikwawa, Chiradzulu, Thyolo, Phalombe, and Balaka, the DPP is projected to win over 90% of the votes.
In other districts, such as Blantyre, Zomba, Mwanza, and Mangochi, the DPP is expected to win between 70% to 85% of the votes. The survey also shows that the DPP’s strongest support base is in the Southern Region, where it is expected to win over 95% of the votes in some districts.
On the other hand, the survey projects that the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP) will perform poorly in the elections, winning less than 10% of the votes in most districts. The MCP’s strongest support base is expected to be in the Central Region, where it is projected to win around 50% of the votes in some districts.
The UTM Party, led by Dalitso Kabambe is expected to perform relatively poorly in the elections, winning less than 5% of the votes in most districts.
The survey’s findings are based on a sample size of over 10,000 respondents, who were selected through a random sampling methodology. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3%, and a confidence level of 95%.
The SARNM research team, which comprised students from various universities in Malawi, used a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods to collect and analyze the data.
The team’s lead researcher, Emanuel Nkhondokonse, said that the survey’s findings are a reflection of the current political mood in the country. “Our survey shows that the DPP is currently the most popular party in Malawi, and it is likely to win the upcoming elections by a landslide,” Nkhondokonse said.
However, Nkhondokonse cautioned that the survey’s findings are not a guarantee of the election outcome, and that various factors can influence the final result. “The election outcome can be influenced by various factors, including voter turnout, campaign strategies, and external factors such as the economy and international relations,” the researcher said.
The survey’s findings have been met with mixed reactions from various stakeholders, with some praising the research team for their work, while others have questioned the survey’s methodology and findings.
The DPP has welcomed the survey’s findings, saying that they reflect the party’s growing popularity in the country.”
On the other hand MCP has trashed the findings of the research but sources within the party have confided in this reporter that the outcome may be a true reflection on what is on the ground.
