By Suleman Chitera
Lilongwe, Malawi – September 8, 2025
Former president Peter Mutharika has taken the lead in the race for State House, according to the latest survey by the Institute for Public Opinion and Research (IPOR).
The survey, conducted between July 6 and 20, 2025, shows Mutharika commanding 43 percent of voter support, ahead of incumbent president Lazarus Chakwera, who polled 26 percent. Dalitso Kabambe of UTM secured 5 percent, while Atupele Muluzi and Joyce Banda registered 2 and 1 percent respectively.
Researchers interviewed over 2,600 respondents across 27 districts, providing one of the most comprehensive snapshots of public opinion ahead of the September 16 elections.
Youth Support Key to Mutharika’s Lead
The poll highlights a significant shift among young voters, with 50 percent of those aged 18 to 35 backing Mutharika. Analysts say the youth demographic could be decisive in determining the outcome of the election.
Despite the clear lead, the race remains open. The survey revealed that 12 percent of voters are still undecided, while 6 percent refused to disclose their preference.
Economy and Corruption Dominate Concerns
President Chakwera Launches Campaign Trail in Lilongwe Kumachenga
Voter concerns are centered on the economy and governance. Over 80 percent of respondents described the current economic situation as “bad,” citing rising living costs and unemployment.
When asked about deciding factors, 49 percent of respondents prioritized a candidate’s stance on corruption, while 39 percent valued concrete policy promises. Regional and ethnic affiliations ranked far lower.
Tightening Contest
An updated IPOR survey released in August shows a narrowing gap. Mutharika’s support dipped slightly to 41 percent, while Chakwera gained ground at 31 percent. Kabambe improved to 6 percent, while Muluzi and Banda polled 3 and 2 percent respectively.
Political observers say the latest figures suggest a tightening contest as campaign activities intensify across the country.
Online Polls Show Similar Trend
Separate online opinion polls conducted by Malawi24 echo Mutharika’s strong performance. A February poll of 38,000 participants gave him 62 percent, while a post-debate survey in August recorded 57 percent support.
However, analysts caution that online polls may not fully reflect nationwide voting patterns since they draw responses mainly from internet users.
Defenders Group advises Malawians MCP to use Smartmatic Machine
Outlook
With just days to go before Malawians cast their ballots, the surveys position Mutharika as the frontrunner. But with a sizeable undecided vote and shifting dynamics, the final outcome remains far from certain.
