Analysis on Why MCP Will Lose the 2025 Election

By Burnett Munthali

Firstly, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) has historically drawn significant support from the Chewa ethnic group, especially in the central region. However, internal divisions within the Chewa have surfaced, leading to reduced political unity. When key voting blocs become fractured, it weakens the party’s ability to consolidate support. This division could be a critical factor in diminishing the MCP’s stronghold in its traditional base.

Secondly, the Chikangawa Forest plane crash, a high-profile incident under MCP’s governance, has deeply affected public perception of the party. This event symbolizes a broader narrative of negligence and lack of accountability, which many voters associate with the current government. The government’s handling of the tragedy has left a sour taste, which could translate into voter dissatisfaction in 2025.Jumah condemns MCP use of MDF in politics

Thirdly, corruption scandals have continued to tarnish the image of the MCP. Reports of government corruption, particularly in the procurement of goods and services, have contributed to the growing disillusionment among voters. Citizens are becoming increasingly frustrated with the lack of transparency and the perceived failure to root out corrupt practices, which could result in a shift of support to opposition parties.

Fourthly, several prominent political figures have recently joined MCP, but their intentions appear to be more for personal financial gain than genuine political commitment. These “big fish” may bring temporary excitement but are unlikely to build sustainable grassroots support. Their participation could even backfire if voters perceive them as opportunists rather than sincere leaders working for the betterment of Malawi.

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Fifthly, MCP rallies are drawing large crowds, but the significance of these gatherings can be misleading. Many attendees are attracted by the opportunity to hear speeches and enjoy musical performances rather than by a deep commitment to the party. As a result, crowd sizes may not accurately reflect the level of genuine support for MCP. Voters who show up at rallies for entertainment purposes may not necessarily translate into votes at the ballot box.Chakwera Failed Miserably Three Years, Remaining Two Years Expect Nothing

In conclusion, the divisions within the Chewa, the government’s mishandling of key events like the Chikangawa Forest crash, widespread corruption, and the ineffectiveness of new political entrants could all contribute to a significant loss for MCP in the upcoming 2025 election

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