By Burnett Munthali
Popular social media outlet Bakili Muluzi TV has stirred public debate with a post highlighting Afrobarometer’s historical accuracy in predicting election outcomes in Malawi. The channel reflected on the polling agency’s past findings and shared insights from its recent survey, projecting a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in the 2025 elections.
According to Bakili Muluzi TV, Afrobarometer accurately forecasted Joyce Banda’s loss in the 2014 elections and the Tonse Alliance’s victory in 2020. These examples, the post claims, validate the credibility of the organization’s methodology and findings.
The recent Afrobarometer survey, conducted in August 2024, projects that:
The DPP would secure 43% of the vote.
The ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP) would garner 29%.
The post notes that the survey occurred before significant economic challenges intensified, such as the rise in fuel shortages and the subsequent economic hardships.
“If the survey were conducted today,” the station argues, “MCP’s share of the vote could drop to as low as 15%.”
The TV station’s claims have fueled spirited discussions on social media. While some supporters of the DPP view the projections as a sign of their party’s resurgence, MCP loyalists and skeptics question the implications and accuracy of the survey under changing circumstances.
The timing of the survey has been a critical point of debate. The economic challenges facing Malawi, including rising fuel prices, widespread shortages, and increasing public discontent, were not factored into the August poll. Many commentators believe these issues could further erode MCP’s support, a sentiment echoed in Bakili Muluzi TV’s assertion that the party could dip to 15% if the survey were repeated today.
As the nation heads toward the 2025 general elections, Afrobarometer’s findings have reignited discussions on voter sentiments and the political landscape. While the DPP is buoyed by the poll’s results, parties across the political spectrum will likely intensify their campaigns to sway undecided voters.
The conversation underscores the importance of credible polling in shaping public discourse and helping stakeholders gauge the electorate’s mood.
