By Burnett Munthali
Twelve years ago, on this very day, an Afrobarometer opinion poll captured the attention of the nation with a bold prediction: “It’s Arthur Peter Mutharika.” This forecast would later prove prophetic, as Mutharika went on to secure a decisive victory in the 2014 presidential elections, cementing his place in Malawi’s political history.
At the time, Afrobarometer’s opinion polls were known for their detailed analysis and focus on public sentiment. However, their declaration of Mutharika as the likely winner was met with skepticism by some political observers and rival camps. The political landscape was marked by intense competition, with candidates from across the spectrum vying to succeed then-President Joyce Banda.
Yet, despite the doubts, Afrobarometer’s data resonated with the electorate, capturing a groundswell of support for Mutharika and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Their prediction not only shaped the narrative leading up to the election but also underscored the growing trust in data-driven insights in Malawian politics.
When the results were finally announced, the Afrobarometer prediction turned into reality. Arthur Peter Mutharika emerged victorious, securing his position as Malawi’s fifth president. His administration, spanning two terms, would go on to leave a mixed legacy, defined by significant development strides as well as criticisms of governance and corruption.
The events of 2012 remind us of the role that opinion polls play in modern politics. While not always perfect, polls provide a snapshot of the public’s mood, helping to guide campaign strategies and predict outcomes. In Mutharika’s case, Afrobarometer not only called the election but also demonstrated the importance of understanding and respecting voter sentiment.
As we look back, the Afrobarometer prediction and Mutharika’s subsequent victory offer valuable lessons for Malawi’s political landscape. They highlight the power of credible data, the unpredictability of public opinion, and the enduring impact of well-organized campaigns.
For many, December 9th will always be a day to remember—not just for what was predicted, but for how it unfolded in one of Malawi’s most pivotal elections.
Indeed, history was made, and today we reflect on the legacy of that moment: “It’s Arthur Peter Mutharika,” as foretold, and as it came to pass.
