Although South African motorists are likely to pay more for petrol and diesel at the pumps in November 2024, the expected increases should be negligible compared to the overall fuel price decreases over the past five months.
The surging oil price behind the increase has calmed significantly in recent weeks as fears over an imminent Israeli attack on oil infrastructure in Iran have cooled.
As a result, the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF’s) data on fuel price adjustments show the anticipated increases in petrol and diesel prices have flattened out in recent days.
For example, the expected price of unleaded 95 petrol has only climbed by one cent per day in the week from 18 October to 24 October 2024.
In the previous week, it had climbed by about 27 cents, working out to nearly 4 cents per day.
As of the last published data from the CEF, the retail prices of a litre of unleaded 95 and unleaded 93 petrol were showing under-recoveries of 29 cents and 17 cents, respectively.
With the current expectation, the typical 45-litre tank will only cost R13.05 more to fill up from November 2024 using unleaded 95, while refilling with unleaded 93 will only cost R7.65 more.
For many motorists — although not all — it would be hard to justify queuing at a fuel station to avoid a hike worth less than a can of Coca-Cola.
The fuel price increases are also far short of where they would need to be to offset the overall fuel price decline over the past few months.
The prices of unleaded 93 and unleaded 95 will remain over R4 lower than they were in May 2024, while wholesale diesel prices will be more than R3 lower.
The table below compares the expected fuel price change for November 2024 with the price cuts since May 2024.
The following graph shows how the fuel pricing adjustments changed over the past month.
| Unleaded 95 | Unleaded 93 | 50ppm diesel | 500ppm diesel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2024 price | R25.49 | R25.15 | R22.24 | R22.15 |
| June 2024 price change | -R1.24 | -R1.24 | -R1.09 | -R1.19 |
| July 2024 price change | -R0.99 | -R1.05 | -R0.24 | -R0.30 |
| August 2024 price change | -R0.15 | -R0.15 | -R0.17 | -R0.28 |
| September 2024 price change | -R0.92 | -R0.92 | -R1.05 | -R0.79 |
| October 2024 price change | -R1.14 | -R1.06 | -R1.12 | -R1.14 |
| Expected November 2024 price change | +R0.29 | +R0.17 | +R0.21 | R0.22 |
| Expected November 2024 price | R21.34 | R20.90 | R18.78 | R18.67 |
